South Tyrol at a Crossroads: Navigating Overtourism and Forging a Sustainable Future

South Tyrol, a premier Alpine destination, has reached a critical inflection point where its remarkable tourism success is generating significant conflict with the quality of life of its residents and the ecological stability of its sensitive environment. This report provides a comprehensive analysis of this complex situation, evaluating the socio-economic and environmental strains resulting from decades of unchecked growth, a phenomenon now widely debated under the term "overtourism." The analysis reveals a fundamental conflict between quantitative expansion and the long-term sustainability of the region as a desirable place to live and visit.

A central focus of this report is a critical assessment of the "cap on tourist beds" (Bettenstopp), the region's primary policy response to curb growth. The evidence indicates that due to significant legislative loopholes and pre-emptive actions by the industry, this policy has been largely ineffective, functioning more as a tool for managed growth than a genuine moratorium. This has led to public criticism and exposed internal tensions within the tourism sector.

In response to these challenges, a strategic paradigm shift towards "Living Space Management" (Lebensraummanagement) is being advocated. This holistic approach re-prioritizes the well-being of the local population and the preservation of natural resources, placing them on equal footing with economic objectives. This report examines this proposed shift alongside a suite of existing sustainability initiatives, including ambitious climate goals, the promotion of sustainable mobility, and responsible resource management. While these initiatives are commendable, they primarily address the symptoms of overtourism rather than the root cause of excessive volume.

The future of South Tyrol's tourism sector is further complicated by the transformative impact of climate change, which threatens the traditional winter season and necessitates a fundamental diversification of the region's offerings. The report concludes that long-term resilience depends on a decisive transition from a model of quantitative growth to one of qualitative development. This requires continuous political innovation, robust policy implementation, cross-sectoral collaboration, and a strategic commitment to prioritizing long-term ecological and social well-being over short-term economic gains. Achieving this balance is the defining challenge for South Tyrol in preserving its unique character as a coveted and sustainable habitat for both residents and visitors.

1. The Janus-Faced Nature of Success: South Tyrol's Overtourism Dilemma

This section establishes the core paradox of South Tyrol's tourism industry: its immense economic success is the direct cause of its current socio-ecological crisis.

1.1. Charting the Trajectory of Unprecedented Tourism Growth

For decades, South Tyrol has solidified its position as one of Europe's leading tourism destinations, attracting millions of visitors with its breathtaking natural landscapes, particularly the Dolomites, and its rich cultural diversity.1 Tourism serves as a cornerstone of the regional economy, generating significant employment and value. However, the scale of this success has become a source of profound strain. The region has experienced approximately 60 years of almost uninterrupted growth in visitor numbers, a trend that has markedly accelerated since 2013.

The metrics of this expansion are stark. Within a 24-year period, the number of annual arrivals doubled, surging from 4.1 million in 2000 to 8.7 million. Concurrently, overnight stays have climbed to 33 million per year, with forecasts projecting a further increase to 37 million for 2024. To contextualize these figures, for a region with a resident population of only about 500,000, this volume of tourism represents an enormous density that is increasingly perceived as a systemic burden. This has led to tangible "stress for South Tyrol's population" and "completely overcrowded" tourist hotspots, which significantly disrupt the daily lives of local inhabitants. The doubling of arrivals in just over two decades is therefore not merely a statistical indicator of economic success; it is a marker of a deep-seated transformation of the region's living space and a testament to the cumulative, and often negative, impact of this massive growth on all facets of local life and infrastructure.

1.2. Economic Cornerstone vs. Socio-Ecological Burden: Quantifying the Conflict

The tourism sector in South Tyrol presents a classic "Janus-faced" reality, a term that aptly captures its dual nature. On one side, it is an undeniable engine of prosperity. On the other, its unmitigated success has produced severe and growing socio-ecological costs. Despite its economic contributions, the industry is under "constant observation and criticism". The escalating "mass flows" of tourists are frequently described as the "underside of tourism," amplifying the inherent conflicts between sustained economic success and its negative "collateral effects".

This duality represents far more than a public relations challenge; it is a "fundamental conflict of interest" between the pursuit of economic maximization and the urgent need to protect environmental integrity and social cohesion. The metaphor of the Janus face is particularly fitting as it describes two opposing realities that are inextricably linked and exist simultaneously. The economic benefits that have long been celebrated are now seen as being directly responsible for the degradation of the very assets—natural beauty, cultural authenticity, and quality of life—that made the destination attractive in the first place. The central challenge for policymakers and industry stakeholders is to manage these two faces, recognizing that neglecting the social and ecological costs in favor of short-term economic gains will ultimately undermine the long-term viability of the entire sector.

1.3. The "Overtourism" Debate: From Industry Buzzword to Lived Reality

The concept of "overtourism" has been a prominent and "controversially discussed" topic in South Tyrol for months, serving as the focal point for the region's anxieties about its future. The discourse surrounding the term reveals a deep ideological schism within the community. For some stakeholders, "overtourism" is dismissed as a "Kampfwort" (a fighting word), an aggressive term that they believe unfairly ignores the economic necessity of tourism for the survival of many mountain communities and farms. From this perspective, criticism of tourism is an attack on the region's economic lifeline.

For others, however, "overtourism" is a precise and necessary descriptor for a "pressing problem" that is tangibly and severely degrading the quality of life for residents. This side of the debate views the issue not as an abstract economic discussion but as a lived reality of overcrowded spaces, strained infrastructure, and eroding community identity. The characterization of the term as either a "fighting word" or a "problem" is not a simple matter of semantics. It is a proxy war for the region's future values and priorities. To frame the situation as a "problem" is to legitimize the need for regulatory intervention and policy change. Conversely, to dismiss it as a "fighting word" is an attempt to delegitimize the concerns of affected residents and protect the economic status quo.

This fundamental disagreement over how to define the situation has paralyzed the development of a unified strategy. The debate has become "highly political and emotionally charged," escalating to the point of public protest actions. This indicates that the conflict has moved beyond industry discussions and into the public square, demanding a clear strategic positioning from political leaders, not merely cosmetic adjustments or communication campaigns.1 Before any policy can be truly effective, a consensus must be built on the diagnosis of the issue itself, a consensus that currently appears distant.

2. The Imperative for "Living Space Management": Reclaiming the Local Habitat

This section analyzes the call for a new governance model as a direct response to the tangible, negative impacts of overtourism on the resident population and their environment.

2.1. Impact Analysis: The Strain on Infrastructure, Housing, and Community Life

The intensive development of tourism has had "noticeable effects" on the "space, nature, and landscape, as well as on the cultural life in South Tyrol". These impacts are not abstract but are felt daily by the local population, creating a cascade of interconnected problems that strain the region's carrying capacity.

The most visible burdens include:

Overcrowding and Traffic: Cities and popular tourist sites are "completely overcrowded," which severely complicates the normal daily routines of residents. A staggering 85% of arrivals and departures are made by private car, leading to a traffic intensity on mountain and pass roads that "defies description". This vehicular congestion results in significant air and noise pollution, which is further exacerbated by the unique topography of the Alpine valleys that trap emissions.
Housing Crisis and Cost of Living: The high intensity of tourism directly inflates the cost of living, causing "prices for rent and selected products to rise". The "chronic housing shortage" has become a persistent and critical issue, with the region's 250,000 tourist beds standing in stark contrast to the scarcity of affordable housing for local residents. This creates a direct competition for space between the tourism industry and the needs of the community.
Infrastructure Pressure: The sudden influx of large numbers of tourists places considerable strain on local infrastructure. This includes transportation networks, waste disposal systems, water and electricity supplies, and healthcare services. In many cases, the existing facilities were not designed to handle such peak loads and are unable to adequately meet the heightened demand.
Cultural Erosion and Diminished Quality of Life: The commercialization of local culture and traditions can lead to a loss of "authentic local identity".1 Traditional shops and family-run businesses are often replaced by international chains and outlets catering exclusively to tourists. As a result, many residents report feeling displaced from their own neighborhoods as these areas transform into pure tourist attractions, diminishing their sense of belonging and overall quality of life.

2.2. From Destination to Habitat: A Necessary Paradigm Shift in Tourism Governance

In response to these mounting pressures, there is a growing demand for a fundamental shift in governance philosophy: from "pure destination management" to a comprehensive "Living Space Management" (Lebensraummanagement). This proposed paradigm shift is a direct acknowledgment that a management approach focused solely on maximizing visitor numbers and revenue has systematically failed to account for the severe social and ecological externalities of tourism. The repeated calls for this change signal a recognition that the previous model has led to unacceptable negative impacts on the "living space" itself, thereby threatening the very foundation of tourism's long-term success: the social acceptance of the local population.

The distinction between these two models is profound. "Destination Management" inherently frames a location as a product to be developed, marketed, and consumed by tourists. In this model, the local environment, culture, and population are often treated as resources to be managed for the optimization of the visitor experience. "Living Space Management," by contrast, reframes the region as a habitat first and foremost—a home for its residents. Under this philosophy, the primary objective of governance becomes the holistic well-being of the local population and the preservation of the natural and cultural environment. Tourism is then viewed as a secondary economic activity that must operate within the ecological and social carrying capacity of that habitat. This is not merely a change in terminology; it represents a revolutionary reordering of priorities, from an economy-centric to a socio-centric model, in order to secure the long-term sustainability of the region for everyone.

2.3. Declining Social License: Local Resentment and the Rise of Protest

The negative impacts of intensive tourism are contributing to a measurable erosion of public support. Across the globe, and particularly in South Tyrol, "increasing resentment among broad sections of the population towards (intensive) tourism models" is becoming noticeable.1 While the overall attitude of the local population towards tourism remains positive, a clear "declining trend" in acceptance has been identified, directly linked to the high intensity of tourism.

This growing dissatisfaction is no longer a silent sentiment; it is manifesting in visible and public "protest actions" against mass tourism. Incidents such as spray-painting slogans on snow have become symbolic acts of resistance, and their "plausible reason" is being acknowledged even by local mayors. This public acknowledgment signifies that the concerns of residents have reached a critical point where they can no longer be ignored and demand a political response.

The emergence of these protests marks a significant evolution in the relationship between the community and the tourism industry. It signals a breakdown of the traditional, top-down governance model where decisions were made by government and industry elites with little public consultation. The local population is transitioning from being passive stakeholders to active political agents who are no longer willing to silently absorb the negative consequences of tourism. These actions represent a clear demand for a more inclusive form of governance—or "co-governance"—where communities have a direct and meaningful role in the decision-making processes that shape their lives. For any future tourism strategy to succeed, it must move beyond tokenistic consultation and establish formal mechanisms for genuine public participation. Incorporating the voices and concerns of locals as decisive factors in planning and implementation is now essential for rebuilding social acceptance and ensuring the long-term stability of the tourism sector.

3. Policy in Practice: A Critical Assessment of the "Cap on Tourist Beds" (Bettenstopp)

This section provides a detailed case study of South Tyrol's primary regulatory response to overtourism, analyzing its intent, implementation, and ultimate effectiveness. The policy, known as the Bettenstopp, is best translated as a "cap on tourist beds" or a "moratorium on tourist beds".

3.1. Legislative Intent: Curbing Quantitative Expansion

The introduction of the cap on tourist beds was a direct political reaction to the escalating "overtourism" debate and mounting pressure from the local population. The Governor's Decree No. 25, dated September 26, 2022, formally established an "upper limit on beds" (Bettenobergrenze) with the explicit goal of reining in "overtourism". The policy was framed as a landmark measure, representing a significant strategic pivot from "unbridled growth to regulated development".1 Its scope was designed to be comprehensive, covering all forms of accommodation, including private rentals offered on online platforms.

The enactment of this policy was more than an administrative adjustment; it was a clear political intervention into the long-standing growth logic of the tourism sector. It signaled that the provincial government acknowledged the social and ecological limits of growth and was prepared to take concrete steps to limit further quantitative expansion. As a direct response to public resentment and protests, the Bettenstopp was a political statement reflecting a shift in the perception of tourism—away from viewing it as a pure economic engine and towards understanding it as an integral component of South Tyrol's shared living space.

3.2. Implementation and Ineffectiveness: An Analysis of Loopholes and Criticisms

Despite its ambitious goals, the cap on tourist beds has proven to be largely ineffective in practice. Evidence shows that the number of tourist beds has continued to rise since the policy's implementation. By February 2025, the number of registered guest beds (excluding second homes) had surpassed the 260,000 mark. This figure is notably higher than the 250,000 beds that were already being cited in 2024 as a primary driver of the region's chronic housing shortage.

This outcome has led to sharp criticism from civil society organizations. The Heimatpflegeverband Südtirol (South Tyrol Heritage Protection Association) has declared the policy "failed" (gescheitert) and is demanding an "immediate revision" of the ordinance. Their demands include new restrictions on short-term tourist rentals of residential units and a complete moratorium on the construction of new bed capacity.

The policy's ineffectiveness can be attributed to several critical loopholes and implementation challenges:

Legislative Exceptions: A key weakness lies within existing law. Article 35 of the Provincial Spatial Planning Act continues to permit expansions of hospitality establishments, albeit with defined limits. For example, small businesses can add up to 20 beds, while larger ones can expand by up to 20% (to a maximum of 140 beds). This pre-existing clause fundamentally undermines the concept of a "stop."
Anticipatory Registrations: In the period leading up to the decree's enactment, a significant number of "numerous hotel expansion projects" were registered by businesses anticipating the new regulation. This rush to secure permits created a large backlog of approved growth, effectively neutralizing the policy's immediate impact.

Further complicating the situation are internal tensions within the tourism industry itself. The Hoteliers- und Gastwirteverband (HGV), the region's powerful hotel and restaurant association, sees both "light and shadow" in the regulation. While the HGV welcomes the principle of capping growth, it strongly criticizes specific exemptions. In particular, it deems the "further exception from the exception for farm stays" (Urlaub auf dem Bauernhof) as "not comprehensible." The association fears this loophole could encourage the establishment of tourism businesses that are "agriculture on paper only" and is calling for stricter criteria to prevent its misuse. This dissent reveals significant internal friction and a lack of a unified vision within the sector.

3.3. Table: Critical Analysis of South Tyrol's "Bettenstopp" (Cap on Tourist Beds) Policy

The following table synthesizes the key aspects of the Bettenstopp policy, highlighting the significant gap between its stated intentions and its practical outcomes.

Policy Aspect	Stated Goal / Intent	Key Provisions & Mechanisms	Documented Criticisms & Loopholes	Key Stakeholder Positions	Assessed Outcome
Overall Policy	To halt overtourism and curb quantitative growth.	Governor's Decree No. 25 (26/09/2022) establishing a cap on tourist beds across all accommodation types.	The cap is not absolute; it functions as a policy of managed growth, not a genuine "stop".	Heimatpflegeverband: "Failed." Demands revision and moratorium.	HGV: Supports the principle but criticizes exceptions.	Ineffective in halting growth; bed numbers continue to rise above previously problematic levels.
Legal Framework	To create a legal basis for limiting accommodation capacity.	The decree sets a regional upper limit on beds.	Loophole 1: Article 35 of the Spatial Planning Act allows for continued expansions.	Loophole 2: Pre-emptive registration of projects before the deadline undermined the policy's launch.	Heimatpflegeverband: Calls for restricting short-term rentals and a moratorium on new construction.	The legal framework is porous, containing structural weaknesses that allow for continued growth and undermine the policy's primary objective.
Sectoral Application	To apply the cap universally to all accommodation types.	The policy is intended to include hotels, private rentals, and other forms of lodging.	Exception: Perceived leniency and a specific "exception from the exception" for "Urlaub auf dem Bauernhof" (farm stays).	HGV: Criticizes the farm stay exception as "not comprehensible" and a potential loophole for non-genuine agricultural businesses.	Creates internal industry friction and perceptions of unfairness, weakening the potential for a unified and coherent strategic approach.

The analysis of the Bettenstopp reveals it to be a clear example of symbolic policymaking. Faced with immense public pressure to act decisively on overtourism, the government introduced a measure with a powerful name—a "stop"—that signaled strong intent and helped placate public concern. However, a complete and immediate moratorium would have faced fierce opposition from the economically powerful tourism lobby. The resulting policy was a compromise. Its legislative structure, weakened by pre-existing exceptions and foreseeable industry behavior, was designed to soften the economic impact. The outcome is a policy that is more performative than effective, one that appears to be a hard stop but functions as a soft brake. This demonstrates a governance system struggling to balance public welfare with entrenched economic interests, ultimately prioritizing the latter while using symbolic legislation to manage public perception. The criticism from the HGV further shows that even this carefully constructed compromise failed to create a stable consensus within the industry itself.

4. Pillars of a Sustainable Future: A Review of Regional Initiatives

This section shifts from the problems and policy challenges to a comprehensive review of the proactive sustainability measures South Tyrol is implementing. It provides a critical assessment of whether these initiatives are sufficient to address the core challenges of overtourism.

4.1. Foundational Commitments: Climate Neutrality and Environmental Protection

South Tyrol has established ambitious environmental goals that extend far beyond the tourism sector, reflecting a deep-seated commitment to long-term sustainability. The region aims to achieve a 55% reduction in CO2 emissions by 2030 and full climate neutrality by 2040. These targets are integral to a broader vision of positioning South Tyrol as the "most desirable sustainable living space in Europe".

This strategic prioritization of environmental protection is rooted in the recognition that the "sensitive ecosystem of the Alps" is one of the "most sensitive ecosystems on Earth".1 Its protection is deemed "essential" to preserve it for future generations. This perspective means that climate action is not merely a response to external pressures or a marketing tool for tourism; it is understood as a fundamental prerequisite for the long-term attractiveness and viability of the region itself. The integration of climate protection into the core regional strategy is therefore a proactive measure to adapt to climate change and secure the natural resources that form the very basis of its tourism appeal.

Concrete measures to achieve these goals include:

Promotion of Renewable Energies: The region is actively promoting the adoption of wind power, hydropower, and especially photovoltaic systems. Financial support is provided to businesses and private households to facilitate the transition to clean energy and demonstrably reduce emissions.
Energy-Efficient Construction: Projects focused on energy efficiency, such as Passive Houses and low-energy buildings, are encouraged, along with the retrofitting of existing structures. Circular economy initiatives like INNO.CIRCLE and SustainaBuild aim to reduce the ecological footprint of the construction sector.
Forest Protection: With over 50% of its area covered by forests, South Tyrol recognizes their critical role as carbon sinks, biodiversity habitats, and natural protective barriers. The "Waldagenda 2030" (Forest Agenda 2030) is a dedicated strategy focused on protecting and preserving these vital ecosystems.

4.2. Sustainable Mobility: A Key Lever for Decongestion and Quality of Life

Recognizing that travel to, from, and within the destination often constitutes the largest part of a holiday's carbon footprint, South Tyrol has made sustainable mobility a central pillar of its strategy. The region has set a target to significantly reduce air pollution by 2030, partly through the promotion of low-emission technologies and a sustainable transport policy. A key goal is for 75% of all newly registered vehicles to be low-emission by 2030.

The promotion of sustainable mobility is more than just an environmental measure; it is a critical lever for alleviating the social burdens caused by traffic and improving the quality of life for residents. Reducing motorized traffic—especially the private car use that accounts for 85% of arrivals and departures and causes severe pollution—not only benefits the environment but also relieves pressure on overcrowded roads and mountain passes. This directly enhances the daily lives of the local population and increases the destination's appeal for guests seeking a more tranquil, low-impact tourism experience.

Key initiatives in this area include:

Public Transportation: The Südtirol Guest Pass, offered by 90% of accommodation providers, grants visitors free use of an extensive public transport network. This network includes 200 bus lines, 4 rail lines, and 7 cable and funicular railways. Experience shows that the network is so well-developed that it can make a private car "superfluous," saving visitors the hassle and expense of finding parking.
Electromobility: The region supports electric vehicle use with a network of 444 public charging points, all powered by clean energy.
Cycling Network: The urban and rural cycling network is being continuously expanded, with the ambitious goal of having 20% of all daily trips made by bicycle by 2030.
Car-Free Concepts: Several municipalities have joined the "Alpine Pearls" network, which promotes car-free holidays with guaranteed mobility at the destination through shuttles, hiking and ski buses, taxis, and electric vehicle or bike rentals. Some town centers are already completely car-free, and high alpine pastures such as the Rodenecker Alm and Seiser Alm are closed to general motorized traffic.

4.3. Responsible Resource Stewardship: Managing Water and Waste

South Tyrol places a high value on the sustainable management of its natural resources, demonstrating a clear awareness of their finite nature and the need to integrate tourism into a circular economy. This is particularly critical given that water consumption per tourist is nearly double that of a local resident.

Key management practices include:

Water Management: The region sources its drinking water from pure Alpine springs, boasting some of the highest water quality in Europe. 99% of households are connected to the public water supply, and over 100 treatment plants purify wastewater to stringent standards. To conserve water, the agricultural sector employs advanced drip irrigation techniques, while ski resorts use innovative snowmaking technologies for efficient water use. The quality of over 3,000 km of rivers and numerous lakes is continuously monitored. In destinations identified as having high water risk, specific goals for responsible water use are set to avoid conflicts with the needs of the local population and ecosystems.
Waste Management: The destination actively tracks its waste generation, reports on it, and sets reduction targets. A multi-stage collection and recycling system facilitates effective waste separation. Businesses are strongly encouraged to avoid, reduce, reuse, and recycle solid waste, including food waste. Furthermore, measures are being implemented to eliminate or significantly reduce single-use items, particularly those made of plastic.

4.4. Driving Quality: The Role of Sustainability Standards and Certifications

To steer the sector towards a more responsible future, South Tyrol is actively promoting the adoption of sustainability standards and certifications. This strategy signals a clear attempt to prioritize quality over quantity and to encourage the tourism sector to take a proactive role in the region's sustainable development. It is a strategic approach designed to position South Tyrol as a leader in sustainable tourism and to communicate to guests that the destination is not only scenically beautiful but also managed responsibly.

Key initiatives include:

Südtirol Nachhaltigkeitslabel (Sustainability Label): This regional label recognizes sustainable businesses and gives them greater visibility on booking platforms. It is a three-tiered system, with Level 3 being the highest distinction. As of November 2024, approximately 100 hospitality businesses held the Level 1 label and 35 held the Level 3 label. The program has been expanded to other economic sectors and will soon be available to private room renters and campsite operators. The criteria include a general assessment of the business's sustainability, CO2 footprinting (for businesses with 10 or more employees), and a commitment to sourcing 100% regional products such as fresh milk, yogurt, butter, apples, and apple juice from South Tyrol.
International Standards: The destination encourages the application of standards and certification systems recognized by the Global Sustainable Tourism Council (GSTC-I) for tourism enterprises.
Industry-Wide Initiatives: The Hoteliers- und Gastwirteverband (HGV) has taken initial steps in sustainability management and plans to expand these efforts. The certification body TourCert is also active as a preferred partner in Italy, working to anchor sustainability as the fundamental model for business operations in the tourism sector. Furthermore, the membership of several communities in the "Alpine Pearls" network demonstrates a commitment to implementing a modern holiday concept based on sustainability and soft tourism in the Alps.

Despite the impressive scope of these initiatives, a fundamental strategic dissonance exists. While South Tyrol is investing heavily in addressing the symptoms of overtourism—such as pollution, waste, and energy consumption—it has failed to effectively address the root cause: the excessive and growing volume of tourists. The sustainability programs focus on improving efficiency and making each tourist's footprint smaller, but they do not limit the total number of footprints. This creates a dangerous paradox where the region could become a leader in "sustainable tourism techniques" while simultaneously suffering from the worsening effects of overtourism. The positive impact of greener practices risks being negated by continued growth in visitor numbers, a classic rebound effect where efficiency gains are consumed by increased consumption. Without a successful policy to manage volume, these initiatives, while valuable, may ultimately prove insufficient.

5. Future Trajectories: Risks, Opportunities, and Strategic Recommendations

The final section looks forward, analyzing the transformative pressures of climate change and outlining a strategic path that moves from quantitative growth to qualitative, resilient development.

5.1. The Climate Imperative: Adapting the Alpine Tourism Model Beyond Winter

Climate change represents one of the most significant and unavoidable challenges for the future of tourism in South Tyrol. The Alpine region is a recognized climate change hotspot, having already experienced an average temperature increase of 2°C since 1980. This warming has direct and profound consequences for tourist offerings that are intrinsically linked to weather, nature, and landscape, such as skiing, hiking, and cycling.

The changing climate is forcing a fundamental re-evaluation of the region's tourism model. The duration of snow cover is projected to decrease, and winter precipitation will more frequently fall as rain instead of snow. This directly threatens the viability of the traditional winter sports season, which, while iconic, is not the sole economic driver in all areas. For example, in the Passeier Valley, the winter season accounts for only 30% of overnight stays, while the summer season generates 70%. This reality underscores the urgent need to diversify away from a heavy reliance on winter tourism and towards more resilient, year-round, and climate-independent models.

While posing a threat, climate change also presents opportunities. Higher temperatures in spring and autumn could extend the summer season, creating new windows for outdoor activities. An increase in sunshine hours could be a positive development, though it also carries the risk of more frequent extreme weather events, such as heavy rainfall and summer droughts. To navigate this new reality, diversification of the tourism portfolio is essential. New business models for ski resorts are needed to secure value creation, especially as the core high-season offering is under threat. A strategic pivot could include strengthening the summer season, developing wellness and cultural offerings, and promoting the MICE (Meetings, Incentives, Conferences, Exhibitions) tourism sector, which is largely independent of climate conditions. Ultimately, climate change is not just a risk to be mitigated; it is a transformative force that will compel the very shift towards quality and diversification that the overtourism debate demands.

5.2. The Role of Evidence-Based Governance: The South Tyrol Tourism Observatory (STOST)

In navigating this complex transition, the South Tyrol Tourism Observatory (STOST) plays a central role. As a dedicated research body, STOST is responsible for monitoring and analyzing tourism development, providing data-driven insights into the sector's impacts on employment, the economy, the quality of life of residents (e.g., rising prices), and the consumption of critical resources like water and energy. The establishment and strengthening of such an institution underscores the recognition that evidence-based policymaking is indispensable for sustainable tourism development.

STOST functions as a "compass" (Kompass) for policymakers, with its indicators and long-term analyses providing the factual basis for strategic decisions, including the formulation of the cap on tourist beds.1 Its role as a vital tourism information tool was reinforced during the COVID-19 pandemic, when it provided timely and reliable information on short-, medium-, and long-term developments to support stakeholders and guide policy towards a sustainable recovery. In an era where the foundations of tourism are being reshaped by pandemics, the climate crisis, and the biodiversity crisis, the exchange between science and practice that STOST facilitates is of paramount importance for making sound decisions.

However, the existence of a data-gathering body, no matter how sophisticated, does not guarantee transformative change. STOST represents a critical piece of governance infrastructure, but its ultimate value depends on its political empowerment. The experience with the Bettenstopp demonstrates that having objective data on the negative impacts of tourism does not automatically lead to effective policy when powerful political and economic interests can override or dilute evidence-based recommendations. The crucial question for the future is whether STOST's data will be used to genuinely transform the tourism model or simply to fine-tune the existing growth paradigm. Its potential as an agent of change hinges on its ability to inform not just government and industry, but also to empower the public in a more transparent and co-governed system.

5.3. Strategic Recommendations: A Transition from Quantitative Growth to Qualitative Value

In the face of the dual challenges of overtourism and climate change, a strategic focus on qualitative development offers the most promising path forward for South Tyrol. This involves a deliberate shift away from the simple metric of visitor numbers and towards creating deeper, more valuable, and more sustainable experiences. Emphasizing authenticity, strengthening regional value chains, and promoting low-impact tourism can enhance the quality of the tourism product while simultaneously increasing its acceptance among the local population. This is a strategic imperative to keep the destination attractive and livable in the long term.

The key pillars of this qualitative strategy include:

Focus on Quality over Quantity: The goal is to achieve a "quality advantage" in the tourism product, turning a simple holiday into a "sustainable South Tyrol experience." This approach leverages the region's strengths in family-run structures, authentic hospitality, and personal engagement.
Promote Sustainable/Soft Tourism (Sanfter Tourismus): This involves actively encouraging low-impact activities such as hiking and cycling, supported by the expansion of car-free concepts and the use of public transport. The focus is on preserving the natural and cultural integrity of the destination through mindful and environmentally friendly visitor behavior.
Strengthen Regional Value Chains and Authenticity: It is essential that tourism businesses actively support the local economy. This includes prioritizing the use of regional, seasonal, and organic products, many of which can be sourced from a business's own production. The region's culinary scene is already experiencing a renaissance of traditional and local dishes, complemented by a growing vegan-vegetarian movement, which enhances the authentic visitor experience.
Embrace Innovation and Adaptation: Initiatives like "Sustainable Destinations" provide a framework for showcasing how sustainable tourism can be implemented in pioneer regions, with thematic focuses on the circular economy, mobility, and biodiversity. Critically, the diversification of the tourism offer to become less weather-dependent is paramount. This includes strengthening summer tourism and developing year-round wellness, cultural, and MICE offerings.

Outlook

South Tyrol is confronted with the complex task of reconciling the success of its tourism sector with the imperative to protect its unique living space and the quality of life of its inhabitants. The "overtourism" debate is a clear signal that the historical model of unbridled growth has reached its limits, making a paradigm shift towards "Living Space Management" inevitable.

The "cap on tourist beds" represents an important political signal of the government's intent to set quantitative limits. However, its effectiveness is severely challenged by legislative exceptions and the need for more consistent implementation. The persistent criticism and internal industry tensions demonstrate that a purely administrative approach is insufficient. A broader consensus and a shared understanding of the necessity for qualitative development are required.

The future of tourism in South Tyrol lies in the consistent anchoring of sustainability as its core operating principle. This must encompass ambitious climate protection goals, the promotion of sustainable mobility to relieve infrastructure and improve quality of life, and responsible resource management. The active promotion of sustainability standards is a vital step in prioritizing quality over quantity and moving the sector towards a proactive role in sustainable development.

The transformative pressure of climate change forces a fundamental realignment of the tourism offer, demanding a move away from the dependence on winter tourism towards more resilient, year-round models. This challenge also presents an opportunity to place a greater emphasis on authenticity, regional value, and sustainable, low-impact tourism. The role of data-driven research, as provided by STOST, will be indispensable in making the evidence-based decisions needed to successfully navigate this transformation.

Ultimately, the long-term success of tourism in South Tyrol will depend on the region's ability to strike a durable balance between the economic benefits of tourism, the protection of the natural environment, and the well-being of the local population. This will demand continuous adaptation, political innovation, and robust collaboration among all stakeholders to preserve South Tyrol as a desirable and sustainable living space for residents and guests alike.